dynamic complexity：动态复杂性

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1、DynamicComplexity50thAnnualMeetingoftheInternationalSocietyfortheSystemsSciencesGeorgeP.RichardsonRockefellerCollegeofPublicAffairsandPolicyUniversityatAlbany,SUNYDecisionsRealWorldInformationFeedbackStrategy,Structure,DecisionRulesMentalModelsVirtualWo

2、rldSelectedMissingDelayedBiasedAmbiguousImplementationGameplayingInconsistencyShorttermUnknownstructureDynamiccomplexityTimeDelaysImpossibleexperimentsMisperceptionsUnscientificBiasesDefensivenessKnownstructureVariableComplexityControlledExperimentsLear

3、ninginandaboutComplexSystemsSterman(1994)InabilitytoinferdynamicsfrommentalmodelsDynamicComplexityarisesbecausesystemsare…ChangingovertimeTightlycoupledGovernedbyfeedbackNonlinear:changingdominantstructureHistory-dependentSelf-organizingAdaptiveCounteri

4、ntuitivePolicyresistantCharacterizedbytradeoffsSystemDynamicsContributionsThinkingdynamicallyMovefromeventsanddecisionstopatternsofcontinuousbehaviorovertimeandpolicystructureThinkingincircularcausal/feedbackpatternsSelf-reinforcingandself-balancingproc

5、essesCompensatingfeedbackstructuresandpolicyresistanceCommunicatingcomplexnonlinearsystemstructureThinkinginstocksandflowsAccumulationsaretheresourcesandthepressuresonpolicyPoliciesinfluenceflowsModelingandsimulationAccumulating(andremembering)complexit

6、yRigorous(daunting)modelevaluationprocessesControlledexperimentsReflectionThesystemdynamicsmodelingprocessAdaptedfromSaeed1992ProcessesfocusingonsystemstructureProcessesfocusingonsystembehaviorTwokindsofvalidatingprocessesSixTraditionsContributingtotheE

7、volutionofFeedbackThoughtBiology:mathmodelsEconometricsEngineeringSocialSciencesBiology:homeostasisLogicTwoThreadsofFeedbackThoughtSystemdynamicsarisesintheservomechanismsthread(thefirstfourinthislist)Forrester’sHierarchyofSystemStructureClosedboundarya

8、roundthesystemFeedbackloopsasthebasicstructuralelementswithintheboundaryLevel[stock]variablesrepresentingaccumulationswithinthefeedbackloopsRate[flow]variablesrepresentingactivitywithinthefeedbackloopsGoalObservedconditionDetecti