海上钻井排名

《海上钻井排名》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、OffshoreRigScorecardStocksPricingmid-$300k'sNormalized7th-GenRates...ButWhatIfThat'sPeak?u/gESVtoN,d/gRDCtoN,DOtoUWNorthAmericaEquityResearch12October2018WearerefreshingourOffshoreRigScorecard,arig-levelNAVmodelthatforcerankstheglobalfleetbyassetclassandspecification,andemploysaservice-lif

2、eDCFmodeltoreconcileassetvaluationsimpliedbythestocksandsecondaryM&Atransactions.Inthewakeofthelatestroundofconsolidation(ESV-RDC,RIG-ORIG),drillersandinvestorsalikearepositioningforananticipatedcyclicalinflection(thecurrentbroaderequitiesmeltdownaside).AfterastrongrunsincetheirAugustlows(+

3、30%v.OSX+4%),ouranalysissignalsthestocksarenowdiscountinglong-term“normalized”drillshipdayratesinthemid-$300krange.Asourtitlesuggests,weviewthislevelofpricingpowerasrepresentingalatercycle,closer-to-peakenvironment(ratherthanmid-cycle).Thisdoesn’tmeantoinsinuateleadingedgepricingcannotexcee

4、dthismark,butratherthatamid-cycleworldwhererealizedaveragedayratesreachtheselevelsisconducivetonewbuildeconomics(+$450k)forsomesustainedperiodoverthenextdecade.Datapointssuggestingpocketsoftightnessshouldn’tbecapitalizedacrossentirefleetsinourview(temptingthoughitmaybeforsome),asongoingback

5、logpricingchurnandpriceelasticityforTier2assets(read:6thgendrillships)likelyyieldaslower/flatterrecoverythandiscountedbythestocks.Weremainbearishonthedrillersdespiteimprovingfundamentals,andsit~14%/25%belowStreetnumbersin2019/2020with~17%averagedownsidetoournewlyestablishedDec-2019pricetarg

6、ets.Toinvestorsarguingtheoffshoremarketisgettingbetter,westipulatedirectionalimprovementmaybeanecessarycondition,butit’shardlyasufficientone(see:AWatchedPotNeverBoils).AsaresultofourworkandrecentM&A,wearemovingtoNeutralonbothESVandRDC(upgradingESVanddowngradingRDC)anddowngradeDOtoUW(fromN).

7、WestayUnderweightNEandRIG.PleaseaskyourJPMsalespersonforacopyofourcustomizableOffshoreRigScorecard,includingvaluationframeworksoneveryoffshoredrillingrigandsecondarymarketassettransaction.·Tooearly(oralreadytoolate?)togetlongdeepwater,stocksdiscountingmi