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1、ABGlobalResearch2November2018EquitiesGlobalBanksBanksGlobalGettingreadyforayear-endrallyTop-downuncertaintieshaveweighedheavilyonbankperformanceGlobalbankshavehadachallengingyeartodatewiththesectordown13.8%(inUSdollarterms)thisyear,under-performingglobalequitiesby8.7%.Inthepastthr
2、eemonths,thesectorhasfallenby9.8%givenglobalgrowthworriesarisingfromtradewaruncertainties,higherUSratesandEMvolatilityalongsidetail-risksinEuroperelatedtoItaly,BrexitandTurkey.Bottom-upfundamentalsnotimmune,butisearningsmomentumpicking-up?Ourlatestin-housebankingsurveyshowssentime
3、nthasweakenedagainbutremainedskewedpositively.Fundamentally,loangrowthexpectationshaveeased,theNIMoutlookremainsmixed,withNPLexpectationsstable.Althoughearningsestimatesaredownyear-to-date,inthecurrent3Q18resultsseason,earningsrevisionshaveturnedpositivewiththeratioofEPS(2018)upgr
4、ades/downgradesforourcoveragerunningat1.2xoverthepastmonthversusayear-averageofbelow1.0x.At9.1xPE,globalbankstradeat2SDbelowitshistoricalaverageGiventherecentsectorsell-offandwithearlysignsofpositiveearningsmomentum,sectorvaluationsappeartobepricinginalotoftop-downrisksassupported
5、inour4Q18bankingsurveywhere58%ofrespondentsconsiderthebankstheycovertobecheap/verycheap.Basedonourconsensus1-yearforwardPEestimates,globalbankscurrentlytradeon9.1xPE,14%belowits5-yearhistoricalaverage.ApreferenceforDMbanksgivenevidenceofstrongerearningsmomentumWehaveapreferencefor
6、DMoverEMbeingoverweightbanksinJapanandneutralintheUSandEurope.Thepick-upinearningsmomentumhasbeennotableinDMwiththe2018EPSupgrade/downgraderatioat1.6xwhilethatforEMhasbeenat0.75x,overthepastmonth.Toplayapotentialyear-endrally,werecommendthefollowingstocks:CreditAgricole,Huntington
7、,ING,JPMorgan,Lloyds,NorthernTrust,andSMFG,inDM,andBancodoBrasil,CredicorpandSberbank,inEM.Figure1:Globalbanks:consensus1-yrforwardPEestimates12.111.611.110.6PhilipFinchStrategistphilip.finch@ubs.com+44-20-75683456GiovannaRosaAssociateAnalystgiovanna.rosa@ubs.com+55-11-35136568Ja
8、sonNapier,CFAAnalystjason.napier@
