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1、第14卷第5期地学前缘(中国地质大学(北京);北京大学)Vol.14No.52007年9月EarthScienceFrontiers(ChinaUniversityofGeosciences,Beijing;PekingUniversity)Sep.2007成矿定量预测与深部找矿赵鹏大中国地质大学,北京100083;湖北武汉430074ZhaoPengdaChinaUniversityofGeosciences,Beijing100083;Wuhan430074,ChinaZhaoPengda.Quantitativeminer
2、alpredictionanddeepmineralexploration.EarthScienceFrontiers,2007,14(5):0012010Abstract:Thisstudyisabriefreviewofthecharacteristicsofmineralpredictionandassessment1Thenecessityofquantitativepredictionisduetotheuncertaintyofpredictioncausedbythediversityofmineraldeposi
3、ttypes,thecomplexityofmineraldepositgenesis,theimplicitnessofmineraldepositcontrollingfactorsandthenon2uniqueunderstandingoftheexplorationinformation1Themultiplecharactersofmineralsystems(multipletypes,scales,levels,elementsandsubsystems)alsomakeitnecessarytopredictm
4、ineraldepositsquantitative2ly1Fordiscoveringsuper2largedeposits,theprincipleof“similar2analogy”isnotsuitable,andtheprincipleof“findingdifferences”mustbeapplied1AcasestudyofthegeoanomaliesoftheGejiuTindepositsdemonstratesthecloserelationshipsbetweendifferentgeoanomali
5、esandthespatialdistributionoftinorebodies1Thepaperalsodiscussesseveraltopicsconcerningthedeepmineraldeposits,whicharethemainproblemsfacingthecur2rentmineralexploration1Thesetopicsarethekindsofdeepexploration,theconceptsofsocalled“secondmin2eralexplorationspace”,theim
6、portanceofstudiesonthedeepstructuresofEarthcrust,theimportanceofhigh“economicreturnrate”andhigh“conversionrate”,andthedifficultiesofdeterminationofanexplorationobjectbeingacommercialone,eventheobjectbeingasuper2largedeposit1Keywords:mineralresources;quantitativepredi
7、ction;deepexploration摘要:成矿预测是在不确定条件下制定最优决策的工作。成矿预测作为一种地质系统,与其他技术、经济系统存在重要区别。由于矿床类型的多样性,矿床成因的复杂性,控矿因素的隐蔽性和找矿信息的多解性,成矿预测结果具有不确定性并常常因人而异。探索成矿预测过程客观化、定量化和精确化一直是成矿预测学的前沿课题。文中以个旧锡矿为例展示致矿地质异常与矿体空间产出及分布的密切关系,强调以“求异”准则为指导的成矿定量预测的重要性。当今地质勘查工作面临深部找矿问题,论文从深部找矿的概念、类型、目标、效益等方面简要介绍
8、了国外理论研究和找矿实践概况。强调深部找矿中要加强地壳深部结构的研究,要重视深部找矿的经济“回报率”和勘查项目的“转化率”的重要性。关键词:矿产资源;定量预测;深部找矿中图分类号:P612文献标识码:A文章编号:100522321(2007)0520001210
