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页数:181页
时间:2019-04-29
《家电行业:行业增长趋缓,龙年还看龙头》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。
1、家电行业:行业增长趋缓,龙年还看龙头请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露//.cindasc4>>Appliancesindustrygrowthslowed,ChoosingleadingenterprisesinYearofthedragon2012年年度投资策略2012AnnualInvestmentStrategy渐飞研究报告-//bg.panlv.net请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露//.cindasc>资料来源:信达证券研发中心注:行业规模以申万分类为准,信达覆盖包括了节能照明行业资料来源:信达证券研发中心看淡看好中性2012年年度投资策略2012年2月10日本
2、期内容提要:2011年家电行业受国内家电产品销售不顺、房地产限购、家电下乡政策逐渐退出和国际经济环境恶化等影响,家电行业景气度逐渐下降,行业增长呈前高后低的走势。分行业来看,白电、厨卫、小家电增速下滑明显,黑电保持相对稳定增速。家电行业经过将近2年的高速发展,整个行业已经进入一个新的调整期,我们判断在2012年第一季度行业增速将会触底,随着毛利率的提升和国内需求回暖,下半年行业增速将会有所恢复。??内需方面,经过我们的初步统计,家电下乡政策拉动需求的影响从大到小的分别是电冰箱、彩电、洗衣机和空调;以旧换新政策拉动需求的影响从大到小的分别是彩电、空调、洗衣机和电冰箱;商品房
3、住宅销售面积增速与电冰箱和空调增速的相关性最大;外需方面,电冰箱和空调对欧美出口的比重相对较大。未来关注节能环保电器和高端电器,同时注意新消费刺激政策推出。上游材料价格和人力成本大幅上升,房地产销售面积严重萎缩,新消费刺激政策力度低于预期,欧债危机影响扩大,人民币升值的风险。2012年家电行业将进入一轮新的调整期,增速趋缓,行业还在等待未来需求回暖,我们维持之前的“中性”评级。2012年关注产品升级、国内需求变化和新消费政策出台,选择竞争力强、盈利能力突出、品牌知名度高、估值水平较低的龙头企业,白电的格力电器和青岛海尔,黑电的海信电器,厨卫小家电的老板电器,LED节能照明
4、的阳光照明。重点公司盈利预测与评级资料来源:wind,信达证券研发中心预测注:股价为2012年2月8日收盘价本期内容提要:渐飞研究报告-//bg.panlv.net请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露//.cindasc>目录表目录································································································································12011··········································
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