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1、TechnologicalForecasting&SocialChange70(2003)297–315AnalysisofUSenergyscenarios:Meta-scenarios,pathways,andpolicyimplicationsRichardSilberglitt*,AndersHove,PeterShulmanTheRANDCorporation,1200SouthHayesStreet,Arlington,VA22202-5050,USAReceived13December2001;receivedinrevisedform26April20
2、02;accepted3May2002AbstractThismanuscriptreviewsacollectionofrecentenergyscenariosfromapolicyandplanningperspectiveandcomparesthesescenariosquantitativelywithrespecttoUSenergyconsumption,energyefficiency,andcarboncontentofthefuelmixin2020.‘‘Carbonefficiency,’’acombinedmeasureoftheeffect
3、sofenergyefficiencyanddecarbonization,isdefinedandisshowntobeproportionaltotheproductofenergyefficiencyandtheinverseofthecarboncontentofthefuelmix.Thescenariosarecomparedonagraphoftotalenergyconsumptionin2020versuscarbonefficiencyandtheresultsusedtodefineasetofstylizedmeta-scenariosthat
4、spanabroadrangeofpossibleUSenergyfutures.Pathwaystothesemeta-scenariosandimplicationsforUSenergypolicyarediscussedincomparisontopastandpresentUSenergyexperience.D2002ElsevierScienceInc.Allrightsreserved.Keywords:Energy;Scenarios;Pathways;Futures;Policy1.IntroductionThedifficultyofaccura
5、telyforecastingenergyconsumption,whichdependsuponmanytechnicalparameters(fuelreserves,conversionefficiency,infrastructure),economicandsocialfactors(GDP,prices,endusepatterns),andpoliticalandpolicyactions(taxes,incentivesandsubsidies,regulations),hasledtotheproliferationofenergyscenarios
6、.Thedistinctionbetweenforecastsandscenariosisthatthelatterdonotattempttopredictthe*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+1-703-413-1000x5441.E-mailaddress:richard@rand.org(R.Silberglitt).0040-1625/02/$–seefrontmatterD2002ElsevierScienceInc.Allrightsreserved.doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00254-8298R.Sil
7、berglittetal./TechnologicalForecasting&SocialChange70(2003)297–315future,butrathertoenvisionwhattypeoffuturesarepossible.AsnotedrecentlybySmil[1],mostforecastsmadeaftertheOPECoilembargoofthe1970soverestimatedUSenergyconsumptionin2000.Moreover,today’sfuelmixhasnotchangedsignific
