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1、Financialrisksanditsearly-warningsystem1,thedescriptionoffinancialrisksBeaver(1996)definesfinancialriskas:bankruptcy,defaultingcumulativepreferenceshareanddebt.Hethinksthat,thedeteriorationofanenterprisedependsonthefollowingfactors:①paymentatmaturity;②thecashfllowoftheenterprise;③profitratet
2、onetworth;④thecapacityofobtainingcapitalinflow.AlsoAltman(1968)definesfinancialriskasalistedcompanythathasbeendefinedtobebankruptbylaw.Thelackofpaymentabilitywhichwascausedbythetechnologicalfailureinfoundmanagement.Generallythesetroublesaretemporaryandlessimportant,andareusuallyabletoremendy
3、,throughvariousmethodssuchasaskingforacompromisethroughconsultation,andputoffthetheduetopaydebts.Inaword,iftheproblemsarepermanent,theenterprisemayhavetofacethebankruptalliquidation;however,iftheproblemsaretemporary,thecompanymayhaveachancetogetoutofthetightspot,andturnalossintoapofit!2,ther
4、elationshipbetweenfinancialrisksanditsearly-warningsystem.Financialrisksisnotonlyassociatedwiththecompany'ssurvivalanddevelopment,butalsotheinterestsoftheinvestors,andthecreditors.WiththeintensivedevelopmentofChina'smarketeconomyandtherapiddevelopmentofthecapitalmarket,listedcompaniesarethre
5、atenedbyfinancialrisks.Whichmeansthatwithoutaprecautionsystemthecorporatemaygetintoatightspot.Asamatteroffact,ithasbecomeagreatconcerncomprhesivelybyinvestors,creditors,andsomemonitoringinstitutionsofsecuritiesmarket.Theearly-warningsystemisavailabletoforgovernorstoknowsmoreaboutthecausesfor
6、financialcrisis,soastopreventfinancialrisks.Thisearly-warningsystemseemstooperateafterthesymboloffinancialrisks.Oncontraryithasalreadylistedallthepossibilitiesofreasonsforfinancialcrisisanditsmonitoringdata.Itisaprecautionsystem,whichisabletopreventandovercometheriskeffectivelywhenitisyettoc
7、ome.3,toreviewafewofthemethodsforfinancialrisks'early-warningsystem.Thereisagreatrangeofmethodsforfinancialrisks'early-warning,includingunivarlate,MuiripleDiscriminantAnalysis(MDA),Logistic,ProbitandANN,whicharemajorlyused.HereI'dliketointroducetwo