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1、摘要建议。本文的研究成果对于贸易公司防范中小私营船厂船舶预付款退款风险具有一定的参考价值，对船舶融资业务开展具有一定的指导意义。关键词：船舶贸易公司，中小私营船厂，预付款退款保函风险，风险控制，KM模型2ABSTRACTTHESHIPBUILDINGREFUNDGUARANTEEBUSINESSANDITSRISKANALYSISABSTRACTIn2008,theglobalfinancialcrisiscausedbytheU.S.subprimemortgagecollapsehadaprofoundimpactonnationaleconomies.Afterthe
2、shippingmarketbubblehadburst,problemsofpoormanagement,excessiveexpansionofsmallandmediumsizedprivateshipyardsappeared,thefinancialdeteriorationofmanyshipyardsaffectedshipconstructionleadingtolatedeliveries,poorquality,andanalarmingspikeintheabandonmentofshipsbytheirowners.Astheshipyard'ssh
3、ipexportagent,aswellastheprincipalbankloandebtor,thetradingcompany’snewshipbuildingrisksbecomeincreasinglyevident,especiallytherisksofshipbuildingrefundguaranteebusinessshouldbepaidmoreattention.Basedonauthor’slongtermpracticeintheindustry,thisthesisstudiesthesmallandmediumsizedprivateship
4、yards’shipbuildingrefundguaranteebusinesswithadeepanalysisofallitsassociatedrisks.Thisthesisintroducestheshipbuildingrefundguaranteebusiness,analysesitsriskunderthe“ShipOwner–TradingCompany–SmallandMediumSizedPrivateShipyard”modethatthetradingcompanyisfacing:usingqualitativeanalysismethods
5、toanalyzerisksthatarehardtoquantify,suchasmarketrisk,operationalrisk,countryrisk,legalrisk,reputationrisk;andselectstheKMVmodeltocalculateandquantifytheprobabilityofthemajorriskintherefundguaranteebusinessforthelender–thefinancialdefaultofthesmallandmediumsizedprivateshipyard,inordertoprov
6、idethespecificfiguresforthetradingcompanies’intuitivejudgment,toeffectivelyavoidthebiggestriskundertheshipbuildingrefundguarantee.Inthisthesis,ZhejiangDonghaiShipbuildingCo.,Ltd.andZhejiangHongrunShipbuildingCo.Ltd.aretakentotheempiricalanalysis,byusingKMVmodeltheory,toanalyzethefinanciald
7、atabetweenthesampleshipyardsandasimilarsizedlistedshipbuilding3ABSTRACTcompany,toquantifythepossibilityandprobabilityofthosetwoshipyards’financialdefaultrisk.Atlast,weproposethecountermeasuresforthetradingcompany,tominimizetherisksoftherefundguaranteebusinessb
