资源描述：
《巴克莱-美股-中小盘股票策略-美国2018中小盘策略展望：扭转败局》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、EquityResearch20November2017U.S.Small&MidCapStrategyOutlook2018PlayingCatch-upMACROSTRATEGYU.S.Small&MidCapStrategyWeforecasthealthyreturnsforsmallcapsin2018(+10.5%totalprojectedreturn)VenuKrishna,CFAwithaRussell2000year-endtargetof1625drivenbyareboundinsmall-cap
2、earnings+12125267328andmodestcompressioninvaluationmultiples.Unlikelargecaps,small-capreturnsvenu.krishna@barclays.comBCI,USthusfarin2017havebeenpredominantlydrivenbyvaluationexpansion(+13.1%)asopposedtoearningsgrowth(uponly2.1%).Webelievethispatternisunlikelytoo
3、ccurEliasKrauklisagainin2018.Inourview,asustainedpickupinearningsgrowth,comingoffalow+12125269376base,willremainkeyforsmall-capreturnsin2018.elias.krauklis@barclays.comBCI,USWeexpectareboundinearningsin2018.Webelieveanimprovingbackdropfordomesticgrowthwillbeakeyd
4、riverofearningsgrowthin2018.WeareforecastingEBITDAgrowthof14%forex-financials.Abroadsetofmacroindicators—includingGDPgrowth,consumersentiment,businessconfidence,ISM,employmentnumbers,autosales,factoryorders,andproductivitygrowth—allpointtoarobustdomesticeconomy.W
5、ehavealreadystartedseeingearlysignsofimprovingfundamentals,asoverthelastthreequarterssmall-capsaleshavebeenshowinganupwardtrendandEBITDAgrowthhasalsomovedintopositiveterritory.Numeroustailwindsshouldsupportearningsgrowth.Beyondanimprovingdomesticgrowthoutlook,wes
6、eenumeroustailwindsthatmakeusoptimisticaboutanearningsreboundinsmallcapsin2018:(1)marginsareataninflectionpoint–weprojectahealthy60bpsinmarginimprovement,(2)apickupincapitalspendingshouldtranslateintohighersales–thereallocationofcapitalallocationawayfrombuybacksa
7、ndtowardscapexisevidentacrossmostsmallcapsectors,(3)weexpecttheimprovingtrendinearningsqualitytocontinue,(4)earningsrevisionstrendshavebeenpositive-consensusearningsestimateshavetickedupandaremorepronouncedrelativetolargecaps,and(5)earningscouldgetafurtherboost(~
8、6%-7%)shouldlowercorporatetaxratesbecomeareality.Valuationsarelikelytomoderatebutstillholdatrelativelyhighlevels.Weexpectvaluationstocontractmodestly(~5%)in201
