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1、23October2017TheFlyingDutchmanEQUITYSTRATEGYASIAIndia:Greatexpectations,smalltransformationsINDIAIndiancompaniesareonagradualrestructuringpath,drivenHeraldvanderLinde*bybothexternalandinternaldisruptionsHeadofEquityStrategy,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandS

2、hanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedheraldvanderlinde@hsbc.com.hkIdentifyingindustrylifecycleskeytoselectlong-termwinners+85229966575DevendraJoshi*WestayunderweightonthemarketintheregionalcontextEquityStrategist,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorpo

3、rationLimiteddevendrajoshi@hsbc.com.hkIndiancompaniesarereshapingbusiness.Whilemanyobserversarefocusingon+85229966592theimplementationofthegoodsandservicestax(GST)inIndiaandtheaftermathofNishuSingla*Associatedemonetisationinthecountry,wefocusoncorporatere

4、structuringinstead.BangaloreExternalandinternalthreats.Sectorssuchastelecomsarefacingdisruptionfrom*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.andReliance’sJio,pushingthekeyplayerstowardsconsolidation.TheIndianITservicesnotregistered/qualifiedpurs

5、uanttoFINRAregulationssectorfacesastructuralslowdownindemand,forcingcompaniestoreinventtheirbusinessprocesses.ForeignbrandsandonlinetravelagentshavereshuffledthepackintheIndianhotelindustry.AndIndianfast-movingconsumergoods(FMCG)isundergoingitsowntransfor

6、mationwithnewentrantPatanjali.Industrylifecycles.Aweakereconomycouldwellacceleratethisprocess.Wearguethatthiswouldbewelcome–especiallyifitenablesIndianROEstoriseintheyearsahead.Industrylifecyclesareakeytoidentifyingpotentialwinners.Short-termheadwinds.Whi

7、lecorporatetransformationsareusuallybullishforstockmarketsinthelongerterm,ourconclusionisthatthecurrentslowpaceofthesetransformationsdoesnotgiveusenoughreasonforustoberevisitingIndianequities.Earningsexpectationsaretoohigh,economicgrowthisslowing,andvalua

8、tionsarestillstretched,inourview.Marketsnowreflectthisreality–wehaveseenanotabledeclinein(foreign)mutualfunds’exposuretoIndianequities,butwebelieveitistooearlyforustochangeourstance.Thus,weremainunderweightonthemark