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1、Economics-DataReactions19October2017BankofKoreaJamesLeeOpeningthedoorforactionEconomistTheHongkongandShanghai4Baserateunchangedat1.25%,butonemembercalledforahike;aBankingCorporationLimiteddissentisnotnecessarilyasignofimminentaction+85228221647james.dh.le
2、e@hsbc.com.hk4BoK'srealGDPgrowthforecastupgraded0.2%-ptsto3.0%for2017basedontheassessmentofstrongSeptemberdataViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.com4Webelieveaweakstartto4Q17activityshouldkeeptheBankfromhikingratessoon,butmeetingsfromNovemb
3、erwillbe"live"IssuerofreportTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedDisclosures&DisclaimerFactsThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystOnhold,withonemembercallingforahike.TheBankofKorea(BoK)keptthebaserateoncertificationsintheDisclosureh
4、oldat1.25%inOctober,aswidelyexpected,unchangedsincecutting25bpinJune2016.Oneappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitmonetarypolicyboardmember,IlHoungLee,surprisedbycallingfora25bphike,againstourexpectationofaunanimousdecision.Thisbreakstheseriesof
5、unanimousdecisionmadebytheboardsincelastMaywhenfourmemberswerereplaced.Lookingbackatpreviouspolicymeetings,adissentinanydirectionwhileremainingonholddoesnottendtosignalimminentrateaction,althoughitoftenrepresentsthemedium-termpolicydirection.However,thela
6、stminorityvotetohikewhilekeepingthepolicyrateunchangedwasinSeptember2011,whichdidnotleadtoanyactionfromtheBoKandtheBankremainedonholdbyunanimousdecisionuntilJune2012beforecuttingthepolicyrateinthefollowingmonth.Growthrevisedupfor2017.Thecentralbankrevised
7、upits2017forecasts,withrealGDPgrowthmarkedupfrom2.8%to3.0%andCPIfrom1.9%to2.0%.ThegovernornotedareboundinSeptemberactivityaftersoftpatchinAugust,evenafteraccountingfortheboostfromtheirregulartimingandparticularlylongholidaysinearlyOctober.Wehadflaggedther
8、iskofthishappening(BankofKoreaWatch:Notsofast,17October2017),althoughitwasnotourbasecasescenario,andwecontinuetoforecastasharppaybackinOctober,especiallyforexports(Koreatrade(September2017):Exportssurge,butinflatedb
