毕马威-current trends and risks of doing business in emerging markets with an emphasis on china and

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RoccoJ.deGrasseComplianceWeekAnnualConferenceWashington,D.C.June4,2008FORENSICSKPMGLLPCurrentTrendsandRisksofDoingBusinessinEmergingMarketswithanEmphasisonChinaandIndia1 TopicsEmergingMarketsChina:anOverviewBusinessRisksIndia:anOverviewBusinessRisks2 ChinaIndiaBrazilRussiaDevelopingMarkets-BRICs3 LookingAhead-TheEconomyU.S.economyslowingWhileAsiamarketsexpectedtogrowat5.6%through2010(1)EmergingeconomiesaccountformorethanhalfofworldGDPtodayBrazil,Russia,IndiaandChina(BRIC)economieswillbelargerthantheG6Source:EconomicIntelligenceUnit4 GlobalProductionPeckingOrderProductionFollowsSalesGrowth199720131USJapan2JapanUS3GermanyChina4S.KoreaGermany5FranceIndia6CanadaS.Korea7SpainBrazil8UKFrance9BrazilCanada10ItalyMexico11MexicoSpain12BelgiumRussia13RussiaUK14ChinaThailand15IndiaIranProductionstratifiesovermorecountriesasOEMssearchfornewdemandandlowercostsourcingTwomorecountriesaccountfortop80%ofproductionby2013Source:CSMWorldwide&KPMG5 BRICScountriesaccountforover60%ofestimatedglobalvolumegrowthto2013…CAGR%2002-13GlobalProductionBRICSMarketsSource:CSMWorldwide&KPMG6 7China7 8TibetJiangxiFujianTaiwanPotentialmarketsmaybelarge….soisthecountry8 9Potentialmarketsmaybelarge….soisthecountryTibetXinjiangJilinHenanJiangxiAnhuiFujianTaiwanInnerMongoliaLiaoningShandongHebeiZhejiangJiangsuJiangxiFujianHainanHubeiiGuangdongGuangxiHunanGuizhouYunnanSichuanChongqingShanxiShaanxiGansuNingxiaHeilongjiangQinghaiTibetTianjinCitieswithpopulation>8millionCitieswithpopulation>2millionCitieswithpopulation>500,0009 10China’seconomicdevelopmentandGDPgrowth(1949-2006)Post197819491952195519581961196419671970197319761979198219851988199119941997200020031949–1978The“GreatLeapForward”CulturalRevolutionEconomicreformbeginsChina’sGDP2006Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaWTO2006GDP=RMB20,941bln(US$2,688bln@7.79)10 11MNCsinChina11 12BusinessexpansionofotherMNCsinChinaXinhuaFinancialNetworkNews28February,2007AsiaPulse8February,2007XinhuaEconomicNews20April,2007ItalianluxurygoodsgroupSalvatoreFerragamoisaimingtodoubleitsstoresinChinato50by2010TheBritishretailgiantTescoannouncedthatitwillopen10moreoutletsinChinain2007afteritsfirststoreinBeijingopenedinJanuaryMicrosoftplanstocommitanotherUS$100millioninstrategicinvestmentsinChina’slocalITfirmsafteratotalinvestmentofUSD60milinthelast3yearsStandardCharteredChinaopenedforbusinessinAprilasalocally-incorporatedbankandaimstohave40outletsinChinabytheendoftheyearAFX-Asia2April,2007Manulifeplanstodoubleitssalesagentsinthemainlandto10,000inthreeyearsandopenthreetofourbrancheseveryyearSouthChinaMorningPost15February,2007GermanexpressdeliveryandlogisticsgiantDHLplanstoinvest110millionUSdollarsinChinaoverthenextfewyearsXinhuaGeneralNews15February,200712 13Regulationsandpolicies13 14RegulationsandpoliciesForeigninvestmenttoOpennuclearpowerplantsinvestmenttoforeigninvestmentOfferpreferentialtaxforforeigngasinvestorsEncourageforeignprivateequityTripleQFIIquotatoUSD30billionAllowoverseasstockexchangestoestablishofficesinChina14 15“Wemustsupportableenterprisestogoglobal,toinvestoverseasandengageinmultinationaloperationaccordingtocommoninternationalrules,andtosetupprocessingbases,salesandmarketingservicenetworks,andresearchanddevelopmentorganisationoverseas.”Goingglobal–amythcomestruePremierWenJiabaoattheNationalPeople’sCongresson5March200615 16ChinesecompaniesgoingglobalBidderTargetDealValueCNOOCBritishPetroleumforoffshoregasfields(Petroleum)US$275millionSINOPECAlgeriaoilfield(Petroleum)US$394millionChinaNetcomAsiaGlobalCrossing(US)(Automobiles)US$89.8millionBaosteelRioTinto(Australia)(Mining)US$30millionLenovoIBMPC(Software)US$1.25billionTCLThomson(ColourTV’s)US$522millionTCLAlcatel(MobilePhones)€55millionNanjingAutomobileMGRover(Automobiles)£53millionShanghaiAutomobileSsangYong(Automobiles)US$552millionAndesPetroleum(JVbetweenChinaNationalPetroleumCorporationandSinopec)EnCana(PetroleumandPipelineAssets)US$1.42billionChinaNationalPetroleumCorporationPetrokhazakhstan(Petroleum)US$4.18billionICBCStandardBankUS$5.5billionSource:BirminghamPost,ChinaDaily,FinancialTimes,SouthChinaMorningPost,XinhuaNewsAgency,BusinessWeek16 17Chinesecompaniesgoingglobal17 18ChinaInvestmentCorpUS$200billionOnefifthofFXreserveInvestinChinaandoverseasUS$3billion-Blackstone18 19The17thNationalCongressoftheCCP19 202008BeijingOlympicGamesItisestimatedthatthe2008Olympicswill:speedupGDPby2-4%create300,000newjobsaccommodate4.8milliontouriststoBeijingattractUS$4.8billionofrevenueoftouristforeignexchangestimulatetheretailsalesofOlympicproductstoRMB8billionin200820 212010ShanghaiWorldExpo1Mayto31October2010Theme:BetterCity,BetterLifeThefirstregisteredWorldExpositioninadevelopingcountryUrbancivilizationwillbedisplayedtothefullextentduring184days200nationsandinternationalorganizations70millionvisitorsfromhomeandabroad21 22Lookingahead…..WTOChinacontinuestobeadifficultmarketCheaplabournotexclusivetoChinaandrelativeadvantagemaydissipateinsomeareasOpportunitiesandbarriersdifferbetweenindustryExistingtrendssuggestasignificantimprovementinthebusinessenvironment…overtime22 ChinaBusinessIssues23 OwnershipandControlInfluenceofotherpartiesDependencyonowner/family/localmanagementUnclearownership–commoninformerStatecompaniesPoorcorporategovernanceunderstanding24 RegulatoryIssuesForeignCorruptPracticesActIncreasedscrutinybyDOJonChinaFCPADistributorandJVpartneractivitiesContractcomplianceTaxreform25 ProcurementFraud26 FraudAlongtheProcurementChainInternalMoneytransferfraudForgedchecksBillingforworknotperformedCheckfraudsElectronicpaymentfraudsBidriggingAdvancedfeefraudDummyinvoicesSuppliesforpersonaluseBidfixingKickbacksConnectedcompaniesHiddencontracttermsExternalFalseneedsassessmentManipulationofbudget/actualMisallocationofprojectcostsRequirement/BudgetSelection/OrderingReceiptofgoods/servicesInvoicingPaymentDefectivedeliveryCounterfeitgoods27 ProcurementFraud–RedFlagsBehavioralindicatorsSupplierinteractionSystemweaknesses28 29SolvingProblems–CulturalDifferences29 30ExpressanOpinion–CulturalDifferences30 31PeoplesRelationship–“Guanxi”31 India32 IndiaInvestmentOverviewIndiaisthe12thlargest1andthe2ndfastestgrowing2economyintheworldIndiaiscontinuingtomoveforwardwithmarket-orientedreformsthatbeganin19911ForeignPortfolioandDirectInvestmentInflowshaverisensignificantlyinrecentyears1CompaniesbasedintheUSandUKareamongthetopfivesourcesofinvestmentbycountry21Source:U.S.DepartmentofState(http://www.state.gov)2Source:EmbassyofIndia(http://www.indianembassy.org)33 IndiaInvestmentOverview-USCompaniesfromtheUSrepresentthe2ndlargestgroupmakingForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)inIndiaCumulativeFDIinflowsfromtheUSthroughJuly2007totaled$6.2billionandaccountedfor12.0%ofthetotalFDIinIndiaUScompaniesaretheleadinginvestorsinPortfolioInvestmentwiththeSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndiahaving388ForeignInstitutionalInvestors(FIIs)outofatotalof1,030FIIsSource:EmbassyofIndia(http://www.indianembassy.org)34 GlobalCorporationssimplyhavetobeinIndiaTechnologyConsumerFinancialServicesTelecomandMediaHealthcareAutomotiveBasicIndustriesElectronicsFinancialInvestorsPrivateEquityPublicEquity835 IndustriesAttractingFDIFinancialServicesRealEstateInfrastructureServicesFuelRetailingAutoHealthcare36 ConduciveEnvironmentforInvestmentStablepoliticalsituationProvencostadvantagesEmphasisonqualityanddeliveryLargelocalmarketSkilledworkforce.Speaks“English”37 FraudRiskinIndia38 Over80percentoftherespondentsrecognizedthatfraudisamajorprobleminIndia.Respondentsalsoindicatedthatfraudisexpectedtoremainaconcernoverthenexttwoyears.FraudRisksinIndiaAnOverviewoftheProblemSource:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200839 FraudRisksinIndiaAnOverviewoftheProblem(continued)Source:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200840 FraudRisksinIndiaAnOverviewoftheProblem(continued)Source:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200841 FraudRisksinIndiaAnOverviewoftheProblem(continued)Source:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200842 FraudRisksinIndiaAnOverviewoftheProblem(continued)Source:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200843 ThefollowingfactorshaveemergedasthetopfourreasonsforincidenceoffraudGreed/ambition(desiretoachievetoomuchtoosoon)Pooranti-fraudcontrolsLackofethicalvaluesPressuretomeetanalysts’expectationsFraudRisksinIndiaAnOverviewoftheProblem(continued)Source:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200844 FraudRisksinIndiaAnOverviewoftheProblem(continued)Source:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200845 62percentoftherespondentsindicatedfraudswereinvestigatedinternallyFraudRisksinIndiaMitigatingtheProblemSource:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200846 Agoodfraudriskmanagementprocessincludes:SoundethicspolicyandCodeofConductWelldefinedwhistleblowingpolicyPeriodicfraudriskassessmentGoodinternalauditfunctionRobustpre-employmentscreeningFraudmanagementsystemFraudRisksinIndiaMitigatingtheProblem(continued)Source:KPMGIndiaFraudSurveyReport200847 ManagingIssuesBriberyandCorruptionCorruptionPerceptionsIndex(CPI)2007Rankscountriesonscaleof10(squeakyclean)to0(highlycorrupt)Indiaranked3.5(72outof179)TransparencyInternational(TI)deems5.0theborderlinefiguredistinguishingcountriesthathaveaseriouscorruptionproblemBribePayersIndex(BPI)2006“Indiaconsistentlyscorestheworst”Indiarankedlast–30outof30countriesrankedTIhascalleduponIndiaandChinatoadopttheOECDAnti-BriberyConventionSource:TransparencyInternationale.V.copyright©1994-2007(http://www.transparency.org/)48 ManagingFraudRiskPartners/RelationshipsIssuesPublicdatausuallynotavailableImportanttoassessethicalstandardsPossibilitythatdata/informationiskeptdeliberatelyhiddenPossibilityofFCPAviolations–persistentissuessurroundingcompetitionincertainsectors49 ManagingFraudRiskCreatingacomplianceenvironmentExtendingcodeofconductandethicspoliciesCustomizingforculturalnuancesSensitivetoculture,butculturecannotbeanexcuse…EffectiveFraudRiskManagementLeveragingTechnologyandproactivedataanalysisFocusedfraudriskassessmentBackgroundscreeningContractcomplianceissues50 ManagingFraudIssuesLegalEnvironmentExtensivelegalenvironmentcanbechallengingVariouscentralandstatelawstobecompliedwithCompaniesAct.DirectandIndirecttaxesForeignExchangeManagementAct,etcLaborlawsandregulationsCommercialDisputesandArbitrations51 TheNewIndia:GlobalCompetition52 …andDynamicDomesticCompetition53 54 55 Presenter’scontactdetailsRoccoJ.deGrassePrincipalKPMGLLP(312)665-1296rdegrasse@kpmg.com56