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1、本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译原文一：ApplicationofVARinFinancialRiskAnalysisofElectricityMarketsAbstract:Inthispaper,thenecessitytostudyfinancialrisksinelectricitymarkets,theapplicationoftheValueatRisk(VaR)methodandthefeasibilityofhistoricalsimulationsarefirstlyintroduc
2、edanddiscussed.Thenthegrossprofit,dailyVaRandweeklyVaRmodelsofanelectricitycompany(theuniquebuyer)basedonpracticalconditionsoftheZhejiangelectricitymarketsarepresented,andthecorrespondingcomputationalresultsarereported.Furthermore,theapplicationofhist
3、oricalsimulationsinfinancialriskinvestigationsofelectricitymarketsisanalyzed,andtheinfluenceofthetwofactors(contractedpricePcandcontractratek)ofCFD(ContractForDifference)onthecompany’sgrossprofitanddailyVaRarediscussed.Thenumericalresultsrevealedthatt
4、hehistoricalsimulationissuitabletoanalyzeandtopredicttheshort-termfinancialrisk(nextdayornextweek)ofelectricitymarket.Itisintuitive,simpleandeasytoimplement.1.IntroductionTheworldwidereconstructionandderegulationofelectricityindustryisgivingrisetocomp
5、etitionsandvigortothepreviouslymonopolisticmarket.However,thesearealsoaccompaniedbyriskswhichhaveneverbeenexperiencedbymarketparticipants(electricitycompanies),especiallyintermsofthefluctuationoftheelectricityprice.Ascontrarytoothercommoditieselectric
6、itycannotbestoredandthereisaneedtomaintainaninstantaneousbalancebetweenthesupplyandconsumption.However,consumptionchangescannotbemeteasilyfromelectricitystorages.Sotheequilibriumpriceofelectricitymarketswillvarystochasticallyastheloadchanges.Therefore
7、,therewillbedrasticjumpingorpeakcharacteristicsinelectricitypriceduetothelimitationinpowergenerationandoutputcapacities.Becauseofthemonopolyofelectricitymarkets,someelectricityproducersmaydominatetheprices,whichwillmakethepricevariationcomplicated.Mor
8、eover,thetendencyofcommoditizationintheelectricityindustryareaggravatingtherisksinthewholeelectricitysystem.Therisksincludetraditionaltechnicalrisks,moreimportantly,thevastfinancialriskfrommarketprices.Alltheserisksmayoccursimultaneouslyandaff
