贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究以猪肉价格为例

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1、贵州财经学院在校学生科研项目结题报告项目名称：贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究---以猪肉价格为例负责人：董志萍所在院系：数学与统计学院指导老师：张文专完成时间：2011年12月课题组成员：董志萍（统计学）印明辉（统计学）二零壹壹年科研处制目录1绪论······························································11.1研究背景·······················································11.2研究目的·············

2、··········································21.3研究现状·······················································21.4研究思路与方法路线·············································31.4.1研究方法····················································31.4.1技术路线·······································

3、·············31.5研究创新之处以及不足···········································31.5.1研究的创新之处··············································31.5.2研究中存在的不足············································42农产品价格形成机制及影响因素分析（以猪肉价格为例）·················42.1猪肉价格形成机制研究·····························

4、··············42.2猪肉价格影响因素分析···········································42.2.1市场内部影响因素············································52.2.2市场外部影响因素············································72.3猪肉价格影响因素的测度········································82.3.1变量与样本的选择··················

5、·························82.3.2模型形式与估计方法·········································92.3.3估计结果分析···············································93猪肉价格短期预测模型的构建和应用································103.1研究方法以及模型的基本原理···································103.1.1研究方法····················

6、······························103.1.2模型的基本原理············································113.2估计步骤·····················································123.2.1利用ADF检验序列及其一阶差分的平稳性······················123.2.2选择模型的滞后阶数········································133.2.3Granger因果检验··

7、·········································133.2.4Johansen协整检验及模型的建立·······························143.2.5误差修正模型的构建·········································144研究结论对于贵州省生猪产业以及整个农业发展的现实意义·············144.1研究结论对生猪养殖业的意义····································144.2研究结论对贵州省农产品市场的一般意义·

8、·························154.3启示··················································