中东和北非经济最新情况，2019年4月：改革和外部失衡（英文）

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1、ContentsAcknowledgementsvAbbreviationsviOverview:LowGrowthandExternalImbalances–TheLabor-ProductivityConnection1Chapter1:MENA’sGrowthProspects3GrowthProspectsin20193GrowthProspectsoftheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica3GrowthProspectsofOilExporters6TheGCC6DevelopingOilExporters7GrowthProspectsofOilImpo

2、rters7OutlookandRisksfor2020-20218Chapter2:MENA’sCurrentAccountBalancesandAggregateLaborProductivity13FiscalandCurrentAccountBalancesinMENA16DeterminantsoftheCurrentAccount20MENA’sUnexplainedCurrentAccountBalances21MENACountriesarenotatRiskofCostlyCurrentAccountReversalsintheShortTerm24Chapter

3、3:StructuralReformsinSearchofAggregateLaborProductivity29HowFiscalReformsCanReduceExternalDeficitsandRaiseLaborProductivity30InternationalTradeReformsbeyondTariffs32SocialProtectionandLaborMarketReforms34Productivity-enhancingSOEReformsinNetworkIndustries:TheCaseofEnergy37References39Appendix:

4、MNACE’sCurrentAccountModel43FiguresFigure1.1GrowthinMENAandtheWorld3Figure1.2SpotandForecastedOilPrices,2014-20236Figure1.3U.S.YieldCurves8Figure1.4ExpectedGrowthinExportDemandforMENA11Figure1.5MENA’sGrowthRelativetoPotentialGrowthDrivenbyExternalFactors(percent)11Figure1.6MENA’sSearchforGrowt

5、h12Figure2.1AverageTradeandCurrentAccountBalancesacrossMENA,2000-201714Figure2.2TheDeclineofMENA’sCurrentAccountBalances14Figure2.3TheDeclineinMENA’sCurrentAccountBalanceinComparativePerspective,1995-201715Figure2.4NetForeignAssetPositionsofMENA16Figure2.5MENA'sTwinDeficits,2000-201717Figure2.

6、6CorrelationsbetweenCurrentAccountandFiscalBalancesacrossMENA,2000-201717Figure2.7FiscalBalances,CurrentAccountBalancesandHouseholdConsumptioninLebanon,EgyptandSaudiArabia,2000-2018,percentofGDP19Figure2.8EightMENAEconomiesHave“Unexplained”DeficitsthatAreNotDrivenbyFundamentals22Figure2.9Forec

7、astsofUnexplainedCurrentAccountBalances24Figure2.10AnatomyofCurrentAccountReversals–CurrentAccountBalances25Figure2.11GrowthSlowdownsduringCurrentAccountReversals25Figure2.12MENAHasMoreOfficialAssistanceandAidthanOtherCountrieswiththeSa