瑞信-美股-能源行业-美国能源MLPs 2020年展望：潮水退去-2020.2.14.pdf

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1、USMidstream&MasterLimitedPartnerships(MLPs)2020Outlook:TheTideIsOutJanuary14,2020EquityResearchAmericasSpiroMDounis,CFA212-325-3463spiro.dounis@credit-suisse.comJohnRMackay,CFADougBIrwin,CFACharlesBryant212-325-6242212-325-6850212-325-4938john.mackay@credit-suisse.comdouglas.irwin.2@credit-suisse.c

2、omcharles.bryant@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethat

3、theFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ExecutiveSummaryKeyThemesfor2020CapitalDiscipline:BrownfieldTrumpsGreenfield•Wecontinuetobelievethat2018representspeakcapexandanticipatea>20%

4、YoYdeclineingrowthcapexin2020.•Permianbuildout(asidefromgas)haslargelyplayedoutasexpected,whichshouldpressuremarketingbusinessesin2020.•Weexpectthenextwaveofcapextoconsistofbrownfieldratherthangreenfieldprojectsascompanieslooktoopportunisticallyandefficientlycaptureincrementaldemand.•FortheCanadianm

5、ajors(ENBandTRP),webelievethenaturalgasnetworkgrowthisunderappreciatedandthemoreregionalplayers(KEYandPPL)tendtooffergreatergrowthinalargelyinsulatedcompetitiveenvironmentinWesternCanada.Simplification:C-CorpPressureGrowing•Followinganactive2019,webelievethatIDRremovalswillbelessinfocusin2020.•Inste

6、ad,weexpecttoseeagreateremphasisonthepotentialforC-Corpconversions;however,wewouldbesurprisedifasignificantnumberofconversionsactuallyoccur.•WeexpectEPDandETtoreceivethemostattentionastheyaretwoofthelargestpublicMLPs,howeversignificantinsiderownershipmakesaconversionunlikely,inourview.Realistically,

7、nameswithlargerpublicfloatssuchasMMPcouldbemorelikelytoconvert,butprobablystillneedmoremotivation.Actionisunlikelyinanelectionyear.Consolidation:CouldBeTailwind•Midstreamconsolidationmaycontinuein2020