德意志银行-china suv sector：great wall willing to take，but anyone willing to give-20170613-deutschebank

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1、ChinaSUVsectorDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina13June2017ChinaSUVsectorAutomobiles&ComponentsIndustryUpdateGreatWallwillingtotake,butanyonewillingtogive?VincentHa,CFAGreatWallsharesralliedonstrongWEYpre-ordersGreatWall'sHsharepricerose18%thisweek.Inourview,thisisattributableResearch

2、Analysttonewsflowregardingstrongconsumerinterestinthejust-launchedWEYVV7+852-22036247high-endSUV.Forinstance,aCheshi.comarticlelastFridaymentionedthatordersoftheVV7havesurpassed23kunits.SomeinvestorsprobablyregardFeiSun,CFAthisasasignofacompanyturnaroundafteritregisteredmerely3.0%YoYsalesResearchAn

3、alystvolumegrowthin5M17,andan18.4%YoYearningsdeclinein1Q17.+852-22036130Straightroadahead?NotnecessarilyToppicksWeadmitthata23k-unitpre-ordersize,whichisstillgrowing,canbeconsideredGuangzhouAuto(2238.HK),HKD13.70BuyasuccessforanewSUVproductinChina.However,weshouldnotequatethisSource:DeutscheBankwi

4、thsustainablemonthlysalesvolumeinthefuture,giventhemarketinterestCompaniesfeaturedlevelcouldbedepletedinfuture,forinstancewhenmorenewmodelsfrompeersGuangzhouAuto(2238.HK),HKD13.70Buyareavailable.Indeed,inmanyothercases,monthlysalesofamodelafterlaunch2016A2017E2018Ecouldendupbeingafractionofitspre-

5、ordervolume.P/E(x)8.27.87.0Price/book(x)1.21.51.3Whatismore,GreatWallstillappearstohaveachallengesellingitsexistingGreatWallMotor(2333.HK),HKD11.02Holdmodels.Forinstance,averagemonthlysalesvolumeYTDis79kunitsvs.90kunits2016A2017E2018EinFY16.Indeed,theHavalbrandjustlaunchedanewroundofpromotionforJu

6、ne/P/E(x)5.17.67.2JulywithamaximumpricediscountofRMB16kandzero-interestfinancing.InPrice/book(x)1.21.61.4otherwords,wethinkthatthesalesupsidefromtheWEYbrandcouldbepartiallyGeelyAuto(0175.HK),HKD14.84HoldoffsetbythesalesdownsidefromtheHavalbrand.2016A2017E2018EP/E(x)8.915.213.7Otherbrandsunlikelytogi

7、veupmarketshare,thuscappingGreatWall'supsidePrice/book(x)2.33.83.1Fromatop-downperspective,weforecastthattheChinaSUVsegment'sYoYGuangzhouAuto-A(601238.SS),CNY27.31Sellgrowthwillslowto16%in2017.Nevertheless,asSUVi