德银-美国-宏观经济-联邦观察员：美联储的政策指示板

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1、FedWatcher:AFedpolicyruleMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomistdashboard(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comOctober23,2017BrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayAssociateavik.chattopadhyay@db.comDISCLOS

5、URESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:23/10/201712:45:08GMTDeutscheBankResearch0bed7b6cf11cDBFedWatcher:AFedpolicyruledashboardSummary:FedspeakonbalancehasPolicybeenmoresupportiveofaDecrateriseimpact*FedfundsrateprojectionsdivergeacrossrulesCurren

6、tpolicyrulevalues:DBView:WestillexpectaratehikeinFedfundsrateTaylor(1993)CurrentTaylor(1993),withLWr*BalancedapproachDec,followedby3in2018(Jun,Sep,Dec)FirstdifferenceruleChangeruleRulevalue(%)12%FirstDifferencerule0.80Fedspeak**:8Harker[3]:VerylittleslackinlabormarketChangerule1.124Kaplan[

7、3]:SolidgrowthandstronglaborTaylor(1993)(LW)1.35marketshouldliftinflation.Likelytosupporta0Balancedapproach(LW)1.75Dechike-4Taylor(1993)3.35Dudley[2]:Pressureonresourceswilldriveupwages-8Balancedapproachrule3.75Williams[3]:“I’vebeendoingthisalongtime,-12Note:LW=r*fromLaubach-Williams(2003)

8、andPhillipscurvehasbeendeclareddeadfar2000200520102015Source:DeutscheBankmoretimesthanMarkTwain”Source:FRB,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankYellen[2]:Littlenew.FedwilllikelyneedtoresorttounconventionalpoliciesagainintheFedGDPtrackers(Q32017)Eventstowatchthisweek:future%AtlantaFedtrackerNokeyeve

9、ntstonotewiththeFedenteringNYFedtrackeritsblackoutperiodaheadoftheOct31-Nov1Fedresearch:4.5DB_Q32017FOMCmeeting“HasthewagePhillipscurvegonedormant?”4.0Relationshipbetweenslackandwagegrowth3.5hasweakenedsince2009atstate-level3.02.7%Buttimingsuggestscyclicalfactorsmayplay2.5arole–recentfla

10、tteningmaybeshortlived2.0“Howillawind?Hurricanes’impactson1.5employmentandearnings”1.5%1.0Hurricanereducedjobgrowth200-300kinMay-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17SepSource:FRBATL,FRBNY,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankLikelyalsoincreasedwagegrowth,duetosharperfalli