随机过程与排队论大作业

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1、随机过程与排队论大作业姓名：李嘉文学号：87日期：2016-01-12指导教师：石剑虹老师TheApplicationofStochasticProcessinTransportationSystem1.IntruductionEconomicandsocialfactorshaveprofoundinfluencesonthelevelandpatternoftraveldemandandthechoicesoftravelerswithinagiventransportinfrastructure.Theyalsoimpactontheabilityofresponsibleau

2、thoritiestofundthemaintenanceandimprovementofinfrastructure,andtoconducteffectivetraveldemandmanagementandcontrolpolicies.Itisjustatsuchstagesofmajorchangeanduncertaintythatthoseplanningfuturetransportpoliciesmostneedsupportinmakingtheirdecisions,butingeneralthisisexactlywhenmostofthemodellingt

3、oolsweadoptfailtooffersupport,withtheirassumptionsbasedoneitheranunchangingworld,oroneinwhichthefuturefollowsdeterministicallyfromthepresent.Eveninperiodsofrelativeeconomic/socialstability,suchassumptionsareincreasinglydifficulttosupport;thisismostnotableincitieswherecontinueddemandgrowthhasout

4、pacedtheexpansionincapacityofthetransportinfrastructure,withthetransportsystemhighlysensitivetodailyandseasonalfluctuationsindemandandcapacities.Thequestionthenarisesastohowwemightdevelopmodellingapproachestobetterdealwithsuchsituations.Oneapproachtosuchproblemsisthatof‘worst-caseplanning’where

5、bythemodelssuggestactionsforaplannertotakesoastominimizetheimpactsunderaworst-casescenario.AtitssimplestmoststrippeddownleveltheStochasticProcessSP)approachcouldbesaidtocomprisethreemainelementsforrepresentingtheepoch-to-epochchangesinatransportsystem:1.Alearningmodel,todescribehowtravellerslea

6、rnfromtheirtravelexperiencesinpasttimeepochs.2.Adecisionmodel,todescribehowtravellersmakedecisions,giventheirlearntexperiences.3.Asupplymodel,todescribetheexperiencesoftravellersinaparticulartimeepoch.2.ModelEstablishmentTheelementsthatdescribedintheprevioussectionaredescribedbyprobabilitystate

7、mentsorprobabilitydistributions,andwhenbroughttogethertheyprovideasingle,self-consistentframeworkforrepresentingthemutualinteractionsbetweentheuncertaincomponentsofthetransportsystem.Justaswedemandofequilibriumtransportationanalys