气候变化对中国农业生产的可能影响及适应对策

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1、气候变化对中国农业生产的可能影响及适应对策AgriculturalScience&Technology,2011,12(3):420—425Copyright⑥2011,InformationInstituteofHAAS.AllrightsreservedResourcesandEnvironmentPossibleImpactsofClimateChangeonAgriculturalProductioninChinaandItsAdaptationCounter--meaSUreSYUANBin',GUO

2、Jian?ping,ZHAOJun-fang',YEMing-zhu1.ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences,Beijing100081;2.AnhuiAgriculturalUniversity,Hefei230036AbstractGIobaIclimatewarminghasdiscernableimpactsonvariousnaturalsystemsandbiologicalsystems.Asthemostfragileecosystem,agricultureis

3、subjectedtothemostdirectimpactsfromclimatechange.Oftheseimpacts,thefirstoneisthechangeinagriculturalclimatere?sources.whichdirectlyaffectsagriculturalcultivationstructureandcropvarietydistributionandfinallyresultslnthechangeincropyield.Here,wereviewtheadvancesin

4、theimpactsofclimatechangeoncropyield,agriculturalclimateresourcesandChina'sagriculturalcroppingsystemandcropvarietydistributionpattern.andprospectthecountermeasuresforagriculturalproductioninordertomeetthefutureclimatechange.andseveralissuesmustbegivenhighpriori

5、ty.KeywordsClimatechange:Agriculturalproduction;Impact,AdaptationcountermeasureReferringtotheestimationreportsfrOmIPCC.themeanearth'ssurfacetemperatureduring1906—2005increasedbvO.74℃(0.56—0.92℃).slightlyhigherthanthe0.6O℃f0.40—0.80oC)during19o1—2O00.Excepttheyea

6、rof1996,allthelatest11years(1995—20061couldbeIistedinthemostwarmtwelveyearssince185o.TheIineartemperatureascend—inara1einIatest50yearswas0.13℃per10years,almosttwotimesoverthatofthepast100years….Estimationresultsusingvariousclimatemodelsindicatethatglobalatmosphe

7、rictemDera-tureascendingrangewouldbe1.1—6.4℃.ClimatechangetrendinChinainthe20centurywasba—sicallyconsistentwiththewarmingtrendofglobalclimate.MeanatmospherictemperatureinChinahasincreasedbv0.5O一0.80℃intherecent1OOyears.slightlyhigherthanthemeanworldwide.1nChina.

8、thewarmestperiodoccurredin1990sinnorthwest.northandnortheastregions.ReferringtothereIatedIiteratures-3j.meanearth'ssurfacetemperatureinthe21centurywouldcontinuouslyas