中国房地产报告——高盛

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1、ChinaPropertyPropertydevelopersPlayonsecond-tiercities.In2006-2007,weexpecthigher""TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.growthpotentialinsecond-tiercities/Shenzhenthaninotherfirst-December12,2005tiercities.WebelievedeveloperswithexistinglandbankintheseCoverageview:Neutralciti

2、eswillmaximizeNAVaccretion.Sectorpolicyriskremainshighnearterm.WeinitiateaNeutralcoverageview;toppick:COLI.InitiatesectorwithNeutralcoverageview;preferCOLI(Outperform)WhyreadthisreportWebelievedevelopersthathaveexistingexposureinsecond-tiercitiesandShenzhenwillbe•

3、Newsectorcoverageabletocapturethehighergrowthpotentialinthesemarkets,whichwilltranslateintofaster•Identifieshigh-growthNAVaccretionin2006-2007.WepreferChinaOverseasLand(COLI,OP),andestimatethatareasforNAVaccretion44%ofthecompany’send-2006EGAVandhalfofits2006E-2007

4、Eprofitswillbegenerated•Analyzesimpactofpolicyfromsecond-tiercitiesandShenzhen,comparedwiththesectoraveragesof33%and22%.ongrowth•UsefulmarketdatapointsWeexpectaverage24%/32%pricerisesin2nd-tier/Shenzhenin2006-2007Affordabilityinmostsecond-tiercitiesisgenerallybett

5、erthaninfirst-tiercities,whichwebelievewilldrivefasterurbanizationandresettlement.Weexpectanaverage24%pricerisein2006-2007formostsecond-tiercities.Givenlimitedsupplyandincreasingaffordability,weforecasta32%priceincreaseinShenzhenduringthesameperiod.Second-tierciti

6、eslessvulnerabletonear-termrisksthanfirsttierAlthoughpolicyriskishighinallgeographicalregions,webelievegrowthinsecond-tiercitieswillbelessaffectedbygovernmentpoliciesthanthatinfirst-tiercities.ChinapropertyvaluationcomparisonTargetpriceCurrentPrem/ForwardPrem/(Pot

7、entialprem/(Disc)YiWang,CFAPriceNAV(Disc)NAVDisc)PE(X)Yield(%)TargetupsidetoNAVStockRating(HK$)(HK$)(%)(HK$)(%)05E06E07E05E06E07E(HK$)(%)(%)BeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesChinaOverseasOP3.3754.02(16)4.40(23)161193453.7511(15)CompanyLimitedShanghaiForteLandIL2.9753.80(22)4

8、.16(28)10974463.104(25)ChinaResourcesLandIL3.2003.0073.81(16)1814122223.05(5)(20)yi.wang@ghsl.comBeijingCapitalLandIL2.2753.08(26)3.46(34)2317102342.25(