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1、综述文章（Reviews）气候变化对中国农业的影响12孙智辉，王春乙1.延安市气象局，陕西延安7160002.中国气象科学研究院，北京100081摘要在全球气候变化背景下，中国的气温不断增高，近50年中国年平均地表气温增加了1.1℃，明显高于全球；降水变化趋势不明显，年代际波动较大，也存在明显的地区差别；极端天气气候事件不断增多。未来气候变化情景，预计中国北方增温幅度高于南方，青藏高原增温最明显，年降水量增加显著区域为华北、西北及东北地区，长江中下游沿岸及其以南地区有小幅度增加。气候变暖将使粮食作物水稻、玉米和小麦的生育期
2、缩短，产量下降；有利于棉花生产，能提高北方棉花产量和品质；三熟区面积将扩大约22.4%，一熟区面积约缩小23.1%，作物种植结构和作物品种的布局将发生变化；主要农作物病虫害呈加重趋势；对温带和寒带的家畜生长是有利的，对热带和亚热带家畜和牧草生长不利；中国四大海区主要经济鱼种的产量和渔获量有不同程度的降低；气候变暖将使中国各类自然植被发生明显北移，土地荒漠化危害范围加大，土壤肥力下降，并增加农业灌溉的需水量，农业水资源供需矛盾加剧。中国农业应对气候变化包括减缓和适应两个方面，应减缓和适应并重。关键词气候变化；农业；影响；对策
3、中图分类号P467文献标识码A文章编号1000-7857（2010）04-0110-08ImpactofChangingClimateonAgricultureinChina12SUNZhihui,WANGChunyi1.YananMeteorologicalBureau,Yanan716000,ShaanxiProvince,China2.ChineseAcademyofMeteorologicalSciences,Beijing100081,ChinaAbstractUnderthebackgroundoftheglo
4、balclimatechange,themeantemperaturecontinuestoriseinChinaduringthelast50years,withannualmeansurfaceairtemperaturebeingincreasedby1.1℃,higherthantheglobaltemperatureincrease;theprecipitationtrendsarenotobvious,withlargeinterdecadalfluctuationsandsignificantregional
5、differences;thenumberofextremeweatherandclimateeventsgrows.Inthefutureclimatechangescenarios,thewarmingamplitudeishigherinthenorthernareathaninthesouthernarea,themostobviouswarmingoccursoverTibetanPlateau,theannualprecipitationincreasessignificantlyinthenorth,nort
6、hwestandnorth-eastofChina,withasmallincreaseintheYangtzeRiveranditssouthernregion.Thegrowthperiodofrice,maizeandwheatwillbeshortenedbyclimatewarming,withdecreasedyield;climatewarmingisbeneficialtocottonproduction,andcanimproveyieldandqualityofcottoninthenorth;thet
7、riplecroppingareawillincreasebyabout22.4%,one-harvestareawillshrinkbyabout23.1%,thecropplantingstructureandlayoutincropvarietieswillchange;thesituationofthemaincroppestsanddiseasestendstobeworse;climatewarmingisbeneficialtothelivestockgrowthintemperateandborealreg
8、ions,butdetrimentaltothelivestockgrowthandforageintropicalandsubtropicalregions;therewillbereductionstovaryingdegreesofproductionsoffourmajoreconomicspe
