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1、FPetriMicroeconomicsforthecriticalmindchapter9uncertainty08/10/2021p.33FabioPetri-Microeconomicsforthecriticalmind-provisionalCHAPTER9UNCERTAINTY-PartI(incomplete)Thischapterdealswithhoweconomictheoryanalyzestheimplications,foranumberofrelevanteconomicissues,oftheexi
2、stenceofuncertaintyabouttheresultsofchoices.Thisisafieldinrapidtransformation.Themostpopularapproachassumesthatthepossibleoutcomesofeachchoicecanbelistedexhaustively,andthatthedecisionmakerhaspreferencesoverchoicesthatimplyanopinionontheprobabilityofoccurrenceofeacho
3、ftheoutcomesofeachchoice.Thenchoicesaredescribedaschoicesamonglotteries,andifanumberofaxiomsaresatisfied,preferencescanberepresentedbyautilityfunctionadditivelyseparableoveroutcomes,calledVonNeumann-Morgenstern(VNM)expectedutility,whichassignstoeachpossiblechoiceauti
4、lityequaltothesumoftheexpectedvalues(inthestatisticalsense)oftheutilitiesofthepossibleoutcomes.Thentheempiricallyrelevantphenomenoncalledriskaversionisexplainedasduetoadecreasingmarginalutilityofincomeorwealth,andimplicationsarederivedfordecisionsconcerninginsurance,
5、riskpooling,riskdiversification,portfoliochoice,outputsoffirms...Afterapresentationofthisapproach,PartIofthechaptermentionsempiricalevidencesuggestingthatdecisionsdonotalwayssatisfytheaxiomsbehindVNMexpectedutility,andpresentsanempiricallybasedalternativeapproach,pro
6、specttheory,whichisgainingincreasingacceptance;butitisstillunclearwhetherthisapproachimpliessignificantlydifferentconclusionsabouttheeconomicdecisionslistedabove.PartIIillustrateshowuncertaintyisdealtwithinmoderngeneralequilibriumtheory.ItpresentsthenotionofArrow-Deb
7、reugeneralequilibriumwithcontingentcommodities,itsequivalencewithaRadnerequilibrium,andtheissueofincompletemarkets.Itisarguedthatthesenotionsdonotavoidthedeficienciesofgeneralequilibriumtheorydiscussedinch.8.Thealternativetreatmentofuncertaintyinthetheoryofvalueanddi
8、stribution,implicitintraditionallong-periodanalysesbothclassicalandneoclassical,isthenexplained.LOTTERIESANDEXPECTEDUTILITYLetussta
