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1、DesigningSocialInquiryThispageintentionallyleftblankDesigningSocialInquirySCIENTIFICINFERENCEINQUALITATIVERESEARCHGaryKingRobertO.KeohaneSidneyVerbaPRINCETONUNIVERSITYPRESSPRINCETON,NEWJERSEYCopyright1994byPrincetonUniversityPressPublishedbyPrincetonUniversityPress,41Willia
2、mStreet,Princeton,NewJersey08540InTheUnitedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress,Chichester,WestSussexAllRightsReservedLibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataKing,Gary.Designingsocialinquiry:scientificinferenceinqualitiativeresearch/GaryKing,RobertO.Keohane,SidneyVerba.p.c
3、m.IncludesbibliographicalreferencesandindexISBN0-691-03470-2(cloth:alk.paper)ISBN0-691-03471-0(pbk.:alk.paper)1.Socialsciences—Methodology.2.Socialsciences—Research.3.InferenceI.Keohane,RobertOwen.II.Verba,Sidney.III.Title.H61.K5437199493-39283300′.72—dc20CIPThisbookhasbeenc
4、omposedinAdobePalatinoPrincetonUniversityPressbooksareprintedonacid-freepaperandmeettheguidelinesforpermanenceanddurabilityoftheCommitteeonProductionGuidelinesforBookLongevityoftheCouncilonLibraryResourcesPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica109876543Thirdprinting,withcorrection
5、sandexpandedindex,1995ContentsPrefaceix1TheScienceinSocialScience31.1Introduction31.1.1TwoStylesofResearch,OneLogicofInference31.1.2DefiningScientificResearchinSocialSciences71.1.3ScienceandComplexity91.2MajorComponentsofResearchDesign121.2.1ImprovingResearchQuestions141.2.2
6、ImprovingTheory191.2.3ImprovingDataQuality231.2.4ImprovingtheUseofExistingData271.3ThemesofThisVolume281.3.1UsingObservableImplicationstoConnectTheoryandData281.3.2MaximizingLeverage291.3.3ReportingUncertainty311.3.4ThinkinglikeaSocialScientist:SkepticismandRivalHypotheses32
7、2DescriptiveInference342.1GeneralKnowledgeandParticularFacts352.1.1“Interpretation”andInference362.1.2“Uniqueness,”Complexity,andSimplification422.1.3ComparativeCaseStudies432.2Inference:theScientificPurposeofDataCollection462.3FormalModelsofQualitativeResearch492.4AFormalMo
8、delofDataCollection512.5SummarizingHistoricalDetail532.6DescriptiveInferenc