我国非寿险业承保周期与其影响因素的实证分析

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1、浙江工商大学硕士学位论文我国非寿险业承保周期及其影响闪素的实证研究E御ⅡUCALANA工，YSISONTHEUNDERⅥ厂IUTINGCYCLEANDITSCAUSESOFCHINA’SNON．LⅡ7EINSI】．RANCEABSTRACTOneproblemconfrontedwiththedevelopmentofChina’Snon—Lifeinsuranceindustryisitslowunderwritingmarginrateforyears，whichcausedaseriesofconsequences，includinga

2、sfollows：(1)reducingtheinvestmentandlimitingthenecessarycapitalwhichunderminedthelong-termgrowthoftheindustry；(2)degradingtheunderwritingcapacityandrepaymentcapability．Theunderwritingmarginisoneimportantdirectobjectoftheresearchonunderwritingcycle．Thephenomenonofunderwritin

3、gcyclewasfirstobservedinthenon—LifeinsuranceoftheUS，whichexhibitsacyclicalpatternofthreeconsecutiveyearsoflossafterthreeconsecutiveyearsofgaininunderwritingmargin．Laterresearchesshowedtheunderwritingcycleisauniversalphenomenonobservedinmostothercountriesthroughouttheworld，w

4、hichwasfoundcloselyrelevantwiththeeconomicglobalizationandglobalreinsurancemarket．Naturally,researchersstartedtoexplorethereasonsthatunderwritingformed．Researcheshaveshowedthattheunderwritingcycleformedindifferentcountrieswithdifferenttraitsreasons，thoughitwasfoundinvarious

5、insurancemarkets．Inordertoexplainthemechanismoftheformationofunderwritingcycle，variousresearchershaveproposedseveraldifferenthypothesesprovedtheirrationalitythroughempiricalanalyses，withsomeimportanthypothesesasbelow：(1)Irrationalexpectationhypothesis；(2)Rationalexpectatiol

6、l／Institllteshockhypothesis；(3)Underwritingcapacityconstrainthypothesis；(4)Generaleconomiccyclehypothesis．Irrationalexpectationhypothesisviewsthemarketisrational，and“NaivePricingMethod”，irrationalcompetencecash—flowunderwritingaremainreasonsofunderwritingcycle．Conversely,ra

7、tionalexpectation／instituteshockhypothesisviewsthemarketisrational，andthatunderwritingcycleformedbecauseofinstituteshocks，suchasdatacollection，policyrenewalmarketregulmion．Underwritingcapacityconstrainthypothesisanalyzesfromtheindustry’Sunderwritingcapacityoverallcapital，wh

8、ilegeneraleconomichypothesismainlystudytheinfluencesofeconomicfactorsontheunderwri